The collapse of the Assad regime in December 2024, following an offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), marks a pivotal moment in Syria’s protracted conflict. With Bashar al-Assad’s departure to Russia after 24 years of rule, a transitional government has emerged, where HTS holds significant influence. However, this transition raises serious concerns about the potential for a new wave of violence and human rights abuses, particularly summary executions, under the guise of an Islamist purge.
A Fragile Transition Amidst Ongoing Conflict
Despite the formation of a transitional government, Syria remains deeply unstable. Clashes persist between various armed groups, including the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). This ongoing conflict creates a power vacuum that HTS and other extremist groups could exploit, potentially leading to widespread human rights violations.
The Humanitarian Crisis: A Breeding Ground for Extremism
The humanitarian situation in Syria is dire, with millions displaced and in need of assistance. Approximately 7.2 million people are internally displaced, and 6.2 million are refugees. This crisis creates an environment where vulnerable populations are susceptible to radicalization and recruitment by extremist groups, further exacerbating the risk of violence and abuses.
Regional Tensions and the ISIS Threat
Regional tensions add another layer of complexity to the situation. Israeli strikes targeting Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) members and attacks on U.S. troops by Iran-backed militias underscore the involvement of external actors. The presence of 900 U.S. troops aims to prevent an ISIS resurgence. Despite losing its territory in 2019, ISIS has increased attacks, exploiting the instability to regain a foothold. This resurgence further threatens the already fragile peace and increases the risk of extremist violence.
The Risk of Islamist Purges
Given HTS’s significant role in the transitional government, there is a growing concern that it may exploit its position to carry out purges targeting perceived enemies and those deemed to be non-compliant with its extremist ideology. Summary executions and other forms of extrajudicial killings could become widespread, mirroring the atrocities committed by ISIS in the past. The international community must remain vigilant and take proactive measures to prevent such a scenario.
Conclusion
The post-Assad era in Syria is fraught with challenges and risks. The ongoing conflict, humanitarian crisis, regional tensions, and the resurgence of ISIS all contribute to an environment where summary executions and other human rights abuses could become rampant. The international community must prioritize the protection of civilians and hold all actors accountable for their actions. Preventing an “Islamist Purge 2.0” requires a concerted effort to support stability, promote inclusive governance, and uphold the rule of law in Syria.