As families look ahead to Thanksgiving 2025, a perfect storm of agricultural and economic challenges threatens to disrupt traditional holiday feasts. A combination of spring frosts, disease outbreaks, and economic recession in Turkey, a key player in the global turkey market, could lead to higher prices and potential shortages.
The Frost Factor
In late April 2025, Turkey experienced a severe spring frost with temperatures plummeting as low as -15°C. This damaging weather event impacted crops across Eastern Anatolia, the Black Sea coast, and the Aegean region, resulting in significant fruit crop losses. While the immediate impact was on fruit production, the broader implications for Turkish agriculture are substantial. Reduced agricultural output can exacerbate existing economic pressures and potentially affect livestock feed supplies, indirectly impacting turkey production.
Economic Recession Grips Turkey
Adding to the agricultural woes, Turkey officially entered an economic recession in April 2025, marked by a GDP contraction of 0.2% for two consecutive quarters. Economic instability can affect consumer spending and investment in agriculture, potentially leading to reduced production and higher food prices. The Turkish government has announced agricultural production support payments for 2025-2027 in an attempt to mitigate these effects, offering farmers TRL244 ($7.16) per decare of planted land as basic support. However, the efficacy of these measures remains to be seen in the face of broader economic headwinds.
Global Turkey Market Dynamics
The global turkey market, valued at approximately $12 billion in 2024, is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.5% through 2030. However, this growth faces challenges. In the U.S., the turkey sector is already contracting, with a 3% drop in production forecast for 2025 due to ongoing impacts from Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) and weak consumer demand. Meanwhile, Russia is increasing its turkey exports, particularly to China, highlighting shifts in global trade patterns. These global dynamics, combined with Turkey’s domestic challenges, create a complex scenario for Thanksgiving 2025.
Potential Implications for Thanksgiving
Given these factors, consumers in 2025 may face several challenges when planning their Thanksgiving meals:
- Higher Turkey Prices: Reduced domestic production in key regions could drive up the cost of turkeys.
- Potential Shortages: Disease outbreaks and agricultural setbacks might limit the availability of turkeys in some areas.
- Shifts in Supply Chains: Consumers may see turkeys sourced from different regions or countries than in previous years.
While it is too early to definitively predict the extent of the impact, the confluence of frost damage, economic recession, and global market dynamics suggests that Thanksgiving 2025 could be significantly affected. Families may need to prepare for higher costs and potential challenges in securing their holiday centerpiece. Monitoring these developments over the coming months will be crucial for both consumers and industry stakeholders.